Oil volatility drives markets: CAD weakens as crude retreats, USD strengthens, Gold pressured below $5,100 while traders reassess inflation risks and Fed rate cuts. The Hormuz Stranglehold and the Energy Shock The primary engine of global market volatility is the escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which has culminated in the closure of
In last week’s edition, we wrote that the price of oil would now be calling the shots and thus determining the performance of global financial markets. The last few days have confirmed this thesis – and with more force than we ourselves would have expected. Since the publication of the last Thoughts, the price of
The XAU/USD chart indicates that gold has been moving within the $5,060–$5,200 range during the last few trading sessions. Bullish perspective: the lower boundary of the long-term ascending channel — in place since early 2026 — currently serves as the main support level. Bearish perspective: the market is facing pressure following comments from President Donald
The USD/JPY exchange rate pulled back slightly, moving from this week’s high of 158.85 to 157 as geopolitical tensions fell and after Japan published strong macro data. So, what next for the pair ahead of the upcoming US inflation report? Japan published strong GDP data The USD/JPY exchange rate pulled back as the US dollar
For a brief stretch earlier this year, the euro traded comfortably above $1.20. Investors were talking up Europe’s defence spending plans, big-ticket infrastructure projects and a more confident post-pandemic recovery. That optimism evaporated almost overnight. The war in the Middle East revived one of the euro’s oldest vulnerabilities: energy dependence. Crude oil surged toward $100
The Chinese yuan crashed this week, erasing some of the gains made in the past few weeks. The USD/CNY exchange rate rose to 6.9240, up sharply from the year-to-date low of 6.8322. So, what next for the renminbi? Chinese yuan retreats after PBOC intervention The USD/CNY exchange rate rebounded this week as the US Dollar
The Indian rupee crashed to its lowest level on record as the ongoing war in the Middle East sent shockwaves in Asia and other continents. The USD/INR exchange rate rose to 92.50 as it crossed the previous all-time high at 92.42. It has jumped by over 10% from its lowest level in April last year.
Currency markets rarely send clear signals during geopolitical crises, but the latest dollar surge arrived at a moment when investors were already uneasy about inflation, interest rates and rising government debt. Then the Middle East conflict added another layer of uncertainty. For a few days, the dollar strengthened sharply, oil jumped, and markets rushed into
The USD/ZAR rebounded this week, reaching its highest level since December last year as the South African rand retreated amid the ongoing war in Iran. It was trading at 16.60 on Friday, up 6.45% from its lowest level this year. South African rand plunges amid war risks The South African rand and other emerging market
This week, markets were trying to assess the impact of the military escalation in the Middle East on different markets. Let’s break down the main developments of the narratives and capital flows during the week of activation of the conflict. The obvious reaction to the military escalation was gaps for Crude oil futures and Gold.